low-probability, high-impact outcomes
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There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…
TR 07- FI- 02 INTERNAL CONTROL – basic course COSO RISKS OBJECTIVES CONTROLS January 2009 EU Twinning Project TR 07-FI ppt download
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low-probability, high-impact outcomes
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